BISG: Book Industry Revenues to Increase 18.3 Percent Over Next Five Years

The Book Industry Study Group's (BISG) recently released study, Book Industry Trends 2005, projects that publishers' net dollar sales (after returns) will increase 5.3 percent to approximately $30 billion in 2005, from approximately $28.5 billion in 2004. Publishers' unit sales are projected to increase by only 2.1 percent, however, to 2.34 billion in 2005, from 2.30 billion in 2004. Meanwhile, domestic consumer expenditures on books are projected to increase by 4.8 percent to $41.1 billion in 2005, from $39.2 billion in 2004.

The Trends report estimates that "over the next five years total book industry revenues would increase by 18.3 percent, paced by religious books with a 50 percent rise." Other categories in which revenues are expected to grow include mass market paperbacks, by 16.9 percent; adult trade books, by 12.3 percent; and professional books, by 11.6 percent. The report notes that mail order is the only sector projected to experience continuous declines.

Total adult trade net dollar sales are expected to increase by 2.9 percent over 2004, while net dollar sales for juvenile trade books are expected to increase 4.8 percent. Mass market net dollar sales are expected to increase by 4 percent in 2005 and net dollar sales for college textbooks are projected to increase by 1.3 percent (though publisher's unit sales are expected to decrease by 1.3 percent).

The report projects that the biggest expected increases in 2005 will be in the categories of religious books and el-hi. Net dollar sales of religious books (including religious fiction) are expected to increase by 9 percent in 2005, as compared to 2004. El-hi net dollar sales are predicted to rise by 15 percent in 2005, with publisher's unit sales increasing by 12.4 percent.

According to Trends 2005, religious books have "emerged as the most impressive growth category in the book publishing industry over the past four years." This category, which includes "hardcover and paperback Bibles, biblical studies, testaments, histories, spiritual titles, hymnals, and prayer books, along with other titles pertaining to religion, inspiration titles, and religious fiction, recorded the biggest gains in 2004, with an 11 percent increase, reaching $1.9 billion in sales."

"The growth of religious-book sales at mainstream retailers is the key factor behind the dollar growth of 11 percent in the sector in 2004 and behind BISG's projections for steady growth over the next several years," said Jim Milliot, senior editor for Business and News at Publisher's Weekly and author of the Trends 2005 introductory essays.

Milliot said that more publishers are expected to sell direct to consumers online, though he doesn't believe this will impact brick-and-mortar stores. He foresees most of these sales as being either incremental or as coming at the expense of other online sellers. --David Grogan